Response to A. Makulilo ' s article on IPSOS ' 2013 Voter Intention Survey Performance

Abstract

This piece critically assesses the article, "Poll- ' Pollution ' ?: The politics of numbers in the 2013 elections in Kenya", by Alexander Makulilo, recently published in the African Review (Vol. 40, No. 2, 2013, p. 1-32).  In the article, the author subjects the survey work related to the March, 2013 Kenyan election conducted by the Kenyan branch of the international market research and media-monitoring firm, IPSOS, to harsh criticism, stemming from various purported methodological failures and deliberate bias. This response, by IPSOS-Kenya ' s chief Research Analyst, comprehensively addresses these criticisms.  In doing so, it seeks to reveal the author ' s insufficient appreciation of such methodology, while raising two critical questions that he conveniently avoids: how credible does he consider the official results, and how close to even these contested results would any final poll €“ concluded over a week before the election itself €“ have to be in order to win his approval?