An Analysis of Changes in Climate Variability and the Persisting Flood Events in Kinondoni District, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Th is paper off ers an analytical view on climate variability and fl ood events in the City of Dar es Salaam.Th is is a response to a central question whether there is relationship between substantial changes in climatevariability especially rainfall and temperature to the persistence of fl ood events. Th e study gathered climatologydata from two weather stations provided by Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) and employed mixedmethods approach in data collection, analysis and presentation of fi ndings. Th e study revealed that temperaturehas shown a signifi cant increasing trend to about 2.45 0C in the last 31 years, while rainfall data indicatedthe decline in annual rainfall especially during short-rainy seasons. Furthermore, there was a relative increasein rains in March and April unlike in May where there is a decline in rainfall. Despite all these changes,correlation value between rainfall intensities and fl ood events was found to be 0.5 indicating a weak to moderatepositive relationship. It is under this regards where poor planning in infrastructure and poor waste disposalplays a critical amplifying role in persistence fl oods. Th erefore this paper recommends that, since temperaturehas shown an increasing trend then future scenarios of climate change in region should not be underestimatedor exaggerated at all levels of decision making, planning and development.Keywords: Climate variability, Climate Change and fl ood events.