Drivers of Informal Settlement Growth and Land Use Change in Dar es Salaam: Insights from Remote Sensing and GIS (1995-2024)

Abstract

This paper explores the drivers of informal settlement expansion and assesses the consequences of inadequate urban planning. It integrates quantitative analysis using Landsat imagery and spatial analysis with ArcGIS Pro, alongside qualitative data from focus groups and interviews. Land cover changes from 1995 to 2024 were evaluated using supervised image classification with a random forest classifier in R to generate land use land cover classes. The analysis revealed significant changes in land use. Agricultural areas increased from 396.7km² to 555.17km², while built-up areas expanded from 72.55km² to 403.44km². In contrast, the forest, bushland, and grassland areas declined significantly. The key drivers of informal settlement growth include financial constraints, political interference, challenges to formalization, and poor coordination among stakeholders. Financial constraints impede comprehensive planning and infrastructure development, while political interference weakens land-use policies. Bureaucratic and financial barriers to formalization lead to unauthorized construction, and the lack of institutional coordination exacerbates fragmented planning and informal industrial growth. Thus, addressing the rapid expansion of informal settlements requires significant financial investments, a strong political commitment, enhanced coordination, and increased public awareness to support sustainable urban planning.