The impact of high living costs, urban agglomeration, and inequality on the core economic drivers of urban out-migration in Sub-Saharan African cities

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of high living costs, urban agglomeration, and inequality on urban out-migration in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) cities, focusing on the spatial geo-economic dynamics that shape migration flows. Using World Bank data and the fixed effects technique, the study identifies income inequality, rapid urbanization, and rising living costs as the main determinants of migration. The study finds that SSA cities are urbanizing rapidly, with an average net migration rate of 1.09, driven by rising living costs, inequality, and uneven economic opportunities. Major cities like Lagos, Kinshasa, and Johannesburg attract migrants but face severe housing shortages and high expenses. Income inequality remains high (Gini = 0.81), and urban growth at 5.29% strains infrastructure. The fixed effects model shows that inequality (β = 0.9784), slum prevalence (β = 0.0029), and youth unemployment (β = 0.1854) significantly drive out-migration. In contrast, agglomeration (β = -0.2041) and health spending (β = -0.0754) reduce it. The model’s robustness (Hansen’s J = 0.183) confirms that high living costs, inequality, and weak welfare systems fuel migration from Africa’s major cities. The study concludes that urban out-migration is shaped by the paradox of agglomeration economies, where opportunities coexist with exclusionary pressures; and recommends policy interventions such as affordable housing, economic decentralization, slum upgrading, and improved service provision to address migration challenges, and promote sustainable urban development.