Mathematical Analysis of Monkeypox Transmission Dynamics with Control Strategie

Abstract

This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the transmission dynamics of Monkeypox and evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. The model is formulated as a system of nonlinear differential equations, capturing key factors such as human-to-human transmission, zoonotic reservoirs, and control measures like vaccination, culling, personal hygiene and treatment. The model's equilibrium points, including the disease-free and endemic equilibria, are determined and analyzed for stability using the effective reproduction number, Re. Conditions under which Re<1 ensure the elimination of Monkeypox, while Re>1 indicates sustained transmission. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify parameters that significantly influence Re​, such as the contact rate, effectiveness of control measures, and the rate of recovery. Numerical simulations demonstrate the impacts of individual control strategies such as vaccination, treatment, culling, and personal hygiene when applied alone. All of the control shows positive impact on the disease prevalence. This analysis provides critical insights for optimizing resource allocation and improving public health responses to Monkeypox outbreaks. The findings underscore the importance of timely and effective implementation of control measures to curb the spread of Monkeypox and mitigate its public health impact.