Mitigating the Spread of Measles under Constrained Health Care Resources in Tanzania using Social Contact Network Models

Abstract

Tanzania revaccinates individuals during measles outbreaks, despite having scant healthcare resources. We construct epidemiological models of measles spread by employing a hybrid of existing social contact networks models to develop SEIR simulation model. Using demographic and measles surveillance data from three rural villages in Tanzania, we simulate the spread of measles and examine which vaccination strategies can effectively control outbreaks. Results strongly indicate the spread of measles largely depends on contact rates among infected individuals within a population. Findings indicate a need for targeted vaccination for children of 6 months to 15 years of age, but equally for unvaccinated older age groups who were born before 1957 or missed the second dose. This work contributes theoretically and methodologically to existing applications of social contact network models for airborne infectious diseases in areas with health system constraints. It sets out implications for the design of effective vaccination programs for control of measles in Tanzania and in other developing countries.

Keywords: Vaccination strategies, Control strategies, Social contact network models, Airborne infectious diseases, Measles.